Welcome to the first annual review issue of 0xU Galactic Markets.
This issue compares 0xUniverse statistical data as of the end of 2019, to the end of 2020. Planet data is reviewed in four charts:
- Planet Price and Value
- Relative Value
- Planet Count
- 3PA Ratios
Following the four charts is a Review and Analysis of the planet market and an opinion piece on 0xUniverse and its underlying planet NFTs.
Planet Discoveries (through February 29, 2020), 0xUniverse Planets Summaries for the first two months of 2020, and the Related Links sections are provided at the end of this issue.
Planet Price and Value
With the exception of legendary planets, the price of all basic rarity planets dropped at a more or less uniform rate of 88.3% to 89.3%. This drop is so significant, the current price of an epic planet is 40% less than the price of a common planet a year ago. On the other side of the spectrum, the price legendary planets have increased by over 240%.
Special rarity planets are planets with a resource of a greater rarity than the planet. Historically, just under 30% of planets within a basic rarity type are special rarity planets.
Special rarity planets dropped in price at a decreasing rate as the rarity of the planet increased. In percentage terms, the second rarest of the 10 planet types, legendary epic planets, dropped in price by 68.6%.
High resource planets are planets that have more than 50% of the maximum possible resources (including population). This equates to total resources greater than 100x the combined daily production of all resources. High resource planet data did not start being collected until June 30, 2019, so there is no annual data for this planet category.
Relative Value
Similar to planet price changes, the relative value of all basic rarity planets dropped at a more or less uniform rate of 75.4% to 76.2%, while the relative value of legendary planets increased 64.4%.
A more telling statistic, is the RV/MP Ratio. Using Relative Value as a barometer, a higher (or increasing) RV/MP Ratio indicates planets that are underpriced by the market, while planets with a low (or decreasing) RV/MP Ratio are overpriced.
In 2019, common planets went from an overpriced RV/MP Ratio of 0.94 to an underpriced ratio of 1.97, an increase of 109.57%. Rare and epic planets became even more under priced, with their RV/MP Ratios more than doubling to 2.78 and 2.75 respectively. While rare planets are the most under priced, with an RV/MP Ratio 2.78, epic planets had the greatest change, with their RV/MP Ratio increasing 123.2% year over year. Legendary planets became even more over priced based on relative value, with their RV/MP Ratio going from 0.75 to 0.36, a decrease of 51.84%.
As a measurement of planet value, a planet type’s relative value should be taken with a grain of salt. The ultra-rare, unique, and collectible legendary planets will likely always fetch and high premium, and therefore always be over priced based on relative value.
The Relative Value of common, rare, and epic planets are more telling. The increasingly higher Relative Value and RV/MP Ratio of rare and epic planets indicate these two plant types becoming increasing under priced by the planet market.
Planet Count
In percentage terms, epic planet discoveries led the pack with an 802% jump in discoveries. Discoveries growth for common and rare planets did not lag far behind, with 773.8% and 776.8% growth respectively. Legendary planets had the slowest growth, with only 26 legendary planets discovered, an increase of 30.6%.
The planet market grew at a quicker pace than discoveries for all planet types except legendary planets, which declined by 50%. The planet market for all planets grew from comprising 2.94% of all discovered planets to 4.32%.
3PA Ratios
The steep decline in the cost of common planets is made evident by the 750% year over year growth of the multiplier variable. Relative to common planets, legendary planets went from a 327x value to a 9,486x value, a growth of over 2,800%. The second rarest plant type, legendary epic planets, went from 16x to 43x the value of a common planet, a growth of nearly 169%. The only planet type to show a decline in value relative to common planets were epic planets, going from a 3PA ratio of 6 to 5, a decline of 17%.
Review and Analysis
The dramatic drop in planet prices over 2019 should come as little surprise. An increasing player base, multiple accounts, possible bots, and lower gas prices, are all factors that have lead to the plunge in planet prices. As long as there are players with the time and/or resources to make a marginal profit from numerous launches, the price of most planets will likely stay slightly above the cost of discovery.
On the other side of the price spectrum are legendary planets. Legendary planet discoveries peaked in November of 2018 at 24. Shortly after that, legendary planet discoveries dropped dramatically. There were only 4 legendary planets discovered during the last six months of 2019, and thus far, none have been discovered in 2020.
While 0xUniverse continues to consist solely of launching rockets and discovering planets, planet prices will likely continue to scrape along this marginal profit over the cost of discovery bottom. This dynamic can certainly change. There are numerous factors that could push planet prices much higher:
Ethereum 2.0: Two primary goals of Ethereum 2.0 is to change to a proof-of-stake consensus and improve scalability. Should it deliver, this will significantly increase the Ethereum user base, which in turn, could increase the potential 0xUniverse player base.
Planet Utility: 0xUniverse planets are non-fungible tokens (NFTs). Each planet is a unique item on the Ethereum blockchain. Planets accumulate resources, allowing players to invent and launch rockets in search of more planets. This is their utility, their use.
Planet utility is dynamic. As the 0xUniverse ecosystem grows so will planet utility. A recent update added the ability for rare, epic and legendary planets to generate energy. Energy can exist in two states; 1) detokenized aka energy (stored on the game server); and 2) tokenized aka 0xE (which is an ERC-20 token).
As an in game asset, energy itself has utility. It can be used to construct buildings or boost the radar of rocket launches by 20%. In a future update, energy is also expected to be used in the construction of battle fleets. Tokenized energy is a liquid asset that can be traded on an in-game exchange.
Layers: 0xUniverse planets exist in space, but the underlying NFTs do not exist in a vacuum. The NFTs exist as ledger entries on the Ethereum blockchain, with the 0xUniverse ecosystem built around them. This ecosystem is bound to grow. Expansions to the game, integration with other 0xGames games like 0xBattleships, and integration with other DApps, are all potential added layers to the 0xUniverse ecosystem.
DApp Space: The DApp (crypto gaming) space is in its infancy. DApps have a global player base, but very few players. Most people have little understanding of crypto and even less of DApps. This will change. Advancements in blockchain technology and more seamless integration into the devices we all use will attract more gamers to the DApp space.
Scarcity: Outside of legendary planets, it is difficult to imagine 0xUniverse planets as scarce. Thousands of planets are discovered every month.
Scarcity is, however, relative. The current gameplay of launching rockets to discover planets may just be setting the stage. Increased utility, additional layers, expanded gameplay, and a growing player base, could make all planets a relatively scarce resource.
If there really are approximately 1 million planets in the 0xUnverse galaxy, planet discoveries can be expected to eventually decline. Based the raw number of monthly discoveries alone, we do not appear to have reached that inflection point, but it could occur in the the very the near future.
Developers: The mission of 0xGames is best stated by a simple slogan on their homepage . . .
“We create open economy games powered by blockchain”
Open economy DApps with the most potential are the ones operating more as a framework. The developer needs to carefully craft this framework around an entertaining and engaging game world. A working player driven economy needs to be successfully integrated into this framework. Doing this requires a certain amount of restraint and patience on the part of the developer.
0xGames appears to be doing this well with 0xUniverse.
Outside of the sale of a black hole and fees for renaming and renting planets, developer revenue comes solely from receiving 5% of purchases in the planet market. This means that the developer’s income is derived directly from the value and velocity of the planet market. In other words, higher planet prices and increased player transactions are what will increase their revenue. This revenue model requires a long-term perspective. Their revenue is dependent on creating an entertainment gaming experience with a functioning economy providing value back to its players.
We are still at the seed stage of 0xUniverse. Planets have little utility, and anyone can search for and acquire an abundance of planets at little cost. Players can even make short term profits by selling planets for a price slightly above the cost of discovery. This dynamic has driven planet prices down.
The current dynamic will likely change. Increased utility, additional layers, relative planet scarcity, improvements in blockchain technology, and a potential influx of players into the DApp space; these are all factors that could drive planet prices much higher.
It is in 0xGames best interest to have both planet prices and the number of transaction in the planet market go up. This will require a certain amount laissez faire and patience.
Planet Discoveries (through February 29, 2020)
For the period of December 31, 2019 through February 29, 2019, planet discoveries went from 308,647 to 367,615. This was a 19.1% increase in the number of discovered planets, with an average month over month increase of 10% during the two month period.
0xUniverse Planets Summaries
Below are all 0xUniverse Planets Summaries since the last issue of 0xU Galactice Markets:
Related Links
To play 0xUniverse click here.
To join the 0xUniverse Discord group click here.
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To follow me on Twitter click here.
DISCLAIMER: 0xU Galactic Markets is for entertainment purposes only. It is not associated with 0xGames. Values do not reflect actual planet values or costs. The true value of any planet can only be determined in the free market by a willing buyer and a willing seller.
